(WASHINGTON, DC) (July 24, 2006) The Lebanese Army has not fired a shot in the current conflict. But it has defeated the Israelis.
While TV’s attention has obviously focused on the Israeli “bang-bang” and Hezbollah’s rocket attacks, the fate of latest war in the Middle East was decided sub silento by the Lebanese Army.
Our conclusions are compiled from sources across the Middle East and in Washington. ContrarianCommentary.com enjoys unparalleled access because of our even-handed position in the conflict. And our track record of accurate past predictions and analysis only grows and glows with the passage of time.
As a Baghdad bureau chief in 2003, I was the first, and initially only, analyst in Baghdad to label Paul Bremer a “wally,” a British slang term for a loser. The publication of Babylon by Bus, a new book chronicling the experiences of two young adventurers under Bremer, confirms what I wrote in June, 2003: the choice of Bremer was a disaster for the United States. Bremer was the wrong man in the wrong place at the wrong time.
I now make a new prediction: Israel is fighting the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time with the wrong tactics. The result: a coming Israeli disaster and massive defeat for the United States. Despite the support of Mighty Bush, Israel is doomed to lose precisely because of its support by America and because it is acting as an American puppet. In addition, Israel’s approach of waging terror against innocent civilians is provoking revulsion.
There is a great deal of speculation concerning how Lebanese feel about Hezbollah’s actions. We’ll save our comments on that dynamic for a later date.
Today the crucial action was inaction by the Israelis. As noted below, Israel’s diffidence has pro-Israel supporters gnashing their teeth and predicting doom and defeat.
Why has Israel stopped short of the massive blow on ground that it claims it wants to administer to Hezbollah? How has the Lebanese Army decided the future course and ultimate outcome of the war, without firing a shot?
Whatever feelings the Lebanese government and Army have towards Hezbollah, they have made one fact clear in Washington: if Israel crosses the border in force, and moves outside a tightly restricted perimeter along the border, the Lebanese Army will join the battle on the side of Hezbollah. Israel would defeat the Lebanese Army, but at the terrible cost of completely undermining President Bush’s conflicting goals of simultaneously trying to stabilize Lebanon while allowing the Israelis to attack.
And so the word has been passed to the Israelis from Washington: bomb, kill, attack along the borders, but go no further. America’s “invisible handcuffs” on Israel’s offensive have doomed the Israeli incursion.
That’s why a professed “lifelong Israel supporter,” Ralph Peters, wrote in a New York Post column Saturday, July 22nd that Israel’s tactics were doomed to failure. (Peters may not know the reason why Israel has been blocked, but he sure can see the consequences.) Peters went so far as to compare the current Israeli leader to “Bill Clinton,” surely the worst slander that any conservative can sling at someone they “support.”
Hezbollah has pulled back from the border, beyond the ground strike zone permitted by the United States. In frustration, the Israelis have continued terror tactics by waging war against innocent, unarmed civilians. But they have not launched columns on Beirut as they did 24 years ago.
Bush was told that if Israel launched a massive invasion, as opposed to the cross-border incursions currently being conducted, the Lebanese Army would fight, as a matter of honor, not potential for victory. Once the Lebanese Army entered the fight, a regional war could and almost surely will erupt. And so while backing Israel with guns, Bush has also clamped “invisible handcuffs” on Israel’s military leaders.
We have something akin to the artificial boundary along the Yalu River that informally existed and was breached during the Korean War, with disastrous consequences.
The result of Bush’s limitations placed on Israel: the Israeli “invasion” is doomed to failure. Hezbollah will survive.
Hezbollah has won the war.
The United States and Israel have lost.
Israel’s terror tactics against unarmed civilian targets have also created another tidal wave of anti-Israeli fanaticism, and stoked the fires of hatred and fundamentalism against Israelis.
What a tangled web they weave. Israelis planned and schemed for months, waiting for pretexts to invade Gaza and Lebanon. They used the pretext of two prisoners of war to launch their plan in the north.
Bush, on the other hand, has been hoping to use Lebanon as a success story for American policy, while looking for a way to strike an indirect military blow against Iran. And so, while his support for Israel has been public, his limits on Israel's Lebanese adventure have been covert. Except at ContrarianCommentary.com.
The Iranians were looking for an opening to attack the Israelis and embarrass the United States. They have profited from Bush’s conflicts and contrarian tactics.
Lebanon and Lebanese, caught in the middle, have suffered a horrible blow from all the participants.
But in the end, Bush has, once again, defeated himself by listening to and following the advice of his pro-Israel supporters in Washington instead of independent and impartial experts on the Middle East. Sunday’s (July 23rd) Washington Post carried an opinion column by former CIA executive John McLaughlin excoriating (in polite language) Bush’s foreign policies.
McLaughlin is an accomplished magician. Bush and the Israelis are not. Their Lebanese magic trick has exploded in their faces. Only they don’t realize it.
Lebanon may have been ravaged by the Israeli attack. But the potential entry of Lebanese forces in a suicidal defense, if Israel advanced further into Lebanon, ultimately is/was the turning point in the war.
Mighty Lebanon defeated puny Israel. And the “world’s only superpower” doesn’t look so super. Again. Calling Condo, calling Condo (my name for “Condi”). Car Condo, where are you?