(CHICAGO)(OCTOBER 4, 2006) Political handicappers have a choice of several bellwether races where Democrats are squaring off against Republican candidates for control of the U. S. House.

For me, the Tammy Duckworth/Peter Roskam election in Illinois' Sixth District is the ultimate sentinel chicken. A Reuters/Zogby poll released today shows Duckworth leading Roskam by a margin of 43-38.

Tammy Duckworth never impressed me when Democratic Party national leaders brought her in. They helped her elbow aside a more local candidate who had a better claim to the nomination. But Duckworth narrowly won the primary and she is the candidate.

Peter Roskam is a decent candidate. He won the Republican nomination by acclamation, indicating Republicans generally were satisfied by his advancement from the state senate to the U.S. House.

How do you explain a neophyte Democrat leading in a solidly Republican district? A sentinel chicken gives epidemiologists information about the spread of a disease. In this case, the 6th District is the ultimate sentinel chicken.

If Republicans are trailing in Illinois' 6th, Democrats may win in a blowout on Election Day.

Almost no one would have given Duckworth any chance to defeat Roskam. I am stunned.

And the poll was probably taken before the full effects of Foleygate have filtered down to the electorate. Because I do not discount the possibility that House Speaker Dennis Hastert will step aside as a result of his role in the Mark Foley sex scandal, the news can only get worse between now and Election Day.

If you have to pick one race to follow as a trendsetter, look at Illinois' 6th. If Republicans are losing there, if they lose there, the Bush era will come to an abrupt end on November 8th, 2006.