THE END OF THE BEGINNING, OR THE BEGINNING OF THE END? OR NEITHER?

     (Amman, Jordan)(June 9, 2006) American forces have succeeded in eliminating a bloodthirsty anarchist and religious fanatic by killing Ahmed Fadhil al-Khalayleh, known to the world by his nom de guerre of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. But to understand both the potential and potential limitations arising out of his death it is necessary to return to the town of Zarqa, a hardscrabble community on the outskirts of Amman.

     Although Zarqa is in the "Middle East," and "Arab," many people look at the area as being all the same. It is not. Iraq is a wealthy country, with lush vegetation along sweeping rivers, with immense resources, truly the "Fertile Crescent" of history.

     Jordan is a generally poor country that has barely triangulated between the madman Hussein to the east in Iraq and the madcap Israelis to the west. Jordanians are survivors. They represent the last Hashemite kingdom established by the British in the aftermath of World war I. Jordanians are survivors.

     Jordan is a peaceful and friendly place. There is no oil, so there is nothing to fight about. And there is poverty. The US "country team" has established a massive CIA presence in Jordan, at a fortress on the outskirts of Amman. But in Jordan, Britain's MI6 and Jordanian Intelligence (JI), not the U. S., are in charge.

     Jordanians were major participants in the hunt for Zarqawi, and they likely made the connections that led to his demise. This is not to subtract from or diminish the outstanding American work at the end. But American forces unfortunately operate through brute force, with predictable consequences. MI6 and JI operate with limited resources through skill and guile.

     Jordanians were stunned last year when Zarqawi & Company blew up hotels in Amman and created the fear that Iraq's chaos would soon engulf their nation. At that point, helping the Americans find and kill Zarqawi became less risky than staying on the sidelines and letting the U. S. go it alone. Desperate for a kill, Americans began to swagger less and cooperate more.

     Throughout history, the insider who squeals has always been the key to a successful takedown operation, most notably in the case of the "Lady in Red" in Chicago who led the FBI to John Dillinger. Once the U.S. began to work with the flow of force in Iraq, it was able to enlist support, and penetrate Zarqawi's perimeter. It also appears that someone will claim the $25 million bounty for the inside job.

     The people of Zarqa are not wealthy, but they are not starving either. Jordan is slowly moving into the mainstream. It is most definitely not a liberal democracy, but it is also not a repressive state for most of its people, although Islamic activist continue to be watched closely. Having been in Zarqa many times, I as struck by the fact that people there looked at Iraq as a "far off place of which we know little."

     There was a perverse kind of fascination that a hometown boy had become a worldwide terrorist, a modern-day Jackal. But there were also people in Zarqa who knew that Zarqawi's way was a dead end to oblivion for Iraq and Jordan. I often stopped in Zarqa to drop off people on the way back from Iraq. That's why I know that Zarqa was the starting point in the search for Zarqawi.

     I remember 2-1/2 years ago on a cold Chicago morning when I checked media resources before going to sleep, and read that Saddam Hussein had been captured. My nemesis Paul Bremer was triumphant. I wrote that the capture of Saddam would not eliminate the insurgency, it would empower the insurgency. Truer words were never written. And I received an avalanche of criticism from right-wingers who excoriated my analysis. But I was right.

     So where do we head in the wake of Zarqawi's demise?

     Zarqawi's death is obviously a positive step, and a major but short-lived public relations victory for the U.S. presence in the Middle East. It is also a warning to the Iranians. But Zarqawi's death is likely to be irrelevant to the future progress of the war. Jordanians have learned the lesson that a terrorist anywhere is a threat to them. They took action. Iraqis are on the path to similar cognition but they are not there yet. They are too busy fighting each other to ask "why."

     By the time Zarqawi was mimicking "John Wayne" tactics by cranking off rounds for media view he had become irrelevant. His evil seeds had been planted. And germinated. They are still there. There is even a strong possibility he was betrayed by sympathizers of Al Qaeda, who felt he was gumming up the works with his hamming for the cameras and overt sectarian messages demonizing Shiites. There were many who wanted Zarqawi dead, and not just George Bush.

     Unfortunately for Iraqis, the machinery of terrorism has taken root deeply and widely in their country. Zarqawi was a media sensation but in reality had become a bit player.

     Iranians are the true threat to Iraqis, and to the U. S. They will not be easy to eradicate. While leaders in Washington and Baghdad have mouthed restraint in the wake of Zarqawi's elimination, they have overemphasized their impact before, and they will probably do so in the days ahead. Iran, of course, was also a big loser with Zarqawi's death. Iran profits from the chaos in Iraq. Zarqawi was a poster boy for anti-Shiite hatred; he provided the opening for expansion of Iranian influence. Zarqawi's successor may not be as anxious to pose for videos.

     Washington still does not recognize that Americans are fighting a revolutionary war in the Middle East, with an enemy and opponents who have infected and contaminated the Iraqi people with sectarian hatreds. Jordanians, Iraqis, Iranians are local. The U. S. is not local, and lacks a familiarity with how the Middle East works. So success is not assured.

     It is only when Iraqi leaders resolve to fight their own internal enemies that they will win their war and establish an independent country, free of Iranian and foreign meddling. Can they do it? A lot of Americans have surrendered their lives, and an American president has surrendered his administration, in the hope they can accomplish the task.