WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST: PART EIGHT 

(WASHINGTON) (July 28, 2006) Over the decades one of the popular topics of speculation has been the "Arab Street," or Arab public opinion. The goondas in the Bush administration thought they had put the existence of the Arab Street to rest when they invaded Iraq and there was no popular uprising. They were wrong.

     Thomas Friedman of the New York Times and the mainstream media have been playing catch-up ball in trying to assess and analyze ContrarianCommentary.com's daily feed from the Middle East. We have been on the cutting edge, consistently.

     And, we can now opine that much to the surprise of Friedman & Co., the Arab Street is very much alive, and more influential than ever, certainly more influential than it has been since the death of Egypt in strongman Gamal Nasser. Today's New York Times trumpets growing support across the Arab world for Hezbollah, and then suggests this is all a charade, undermined by a "wink and a nod" for the U. S. Not so.

     The Arab Street has just begun to influence the dynamic of American-Israeli-Palestinian-Arab relations. What has rejuvenated and empowered the Street is the growth of Arab cable/satellite networks.

     After the fall of Baghdad the only unfiltered way into Iraq was the "Highway of Death" from Amman to Baghdad. We would reach the Jordanian side of the border early in the morning, usually around 5:00 A.M., when the drivers would stop for prayers and breakfast. Flickering in the background of every café was one Arab news channel or another. Aljazeera is the best known, but Al-Arabiya and Lebanese TV were also being broadcast. People were intently watching.

     As a broadcaster, I immediately appreciated that these TV channels would change the course of the war. And the peace.

     I experienced another cable/satellite epiphany on a chicken farm near Kufa. There had been laughter and ridicule over the fact that General Jay Garner was not being allowed to come to Baghdad, because it was "too dangerous," while we were living there and the town was safe and reasonably secure. I sat there at the chicken farm (eating chicken salad) watching Garner finally alight on Iraqi soil. So did everyone else at the meeting. I knew then that broadcast information would drive the future course of the American presence in ways that Washington had not considered, probably would not anticipate and most probably would pay dearly for ignoring.

     I entered the broadcasting industry way back in 1968, and have worked in and out of broadcasting since then. In my early criticism of Bozo Paul Bremer in Baghdad  I mentioned how he was surrendering the soapbox of television, and should get on the tube and start talking, in Arabic. It was not to be.

     Since 2003, the reach and influence of Arab channels has expanded exponentially.

Regrettably, Arab citizens do not enjoy freedom and democracy. Most Arabs live under repressive regimes such as the malignant Mubarek junta, or the Saudi "royal" cabal, or the more benign British-influenced Jordanian royal family.

     But television has empowered the masses and given new life—and freedom and democracy--to the Street. Would Mubarek stand and say, "Turn off the Arab TV news channels?" No. So while repression reigns at the ballot box, and the Mukhabbarat controls meetings and political activity, freedom of speech is flowing into almost every Arab home.

The result is that we are about to experience an explosion in the Middle East, and no one sees it coming.

     Well, Tom Freedman in today's (Friday's) column sees it coming. And he doesn't like it. He flaps his wings and loses his feathers over what he sees developing. The only criticism he omits of the Arabs is that they have not developed adequate symphony orchestras.

Try as he might, Friedman still sees the Middle East, the region that made him famous, through Hebraic eyeglasses, not Arab spectacles. He is on the "streets" but not of the Street of the Arab world. He decries the lack of Arab universities (and he's right, of course), but then ultimately he is forced to admit that the dynamic of the Arab-Israeli conflict is about to swamp the future, and create an uncertain and even uncontrollable "new Middle East."

     Friedman and I agree on one point: Mama Condo Rice (Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice) is giving birth, and it’s a big, fat explosive "new Middle East" she is delivering. And, to give the devil his due, i.e. "dad" Donald Rumsfeld, America will have to deal with the Middle East he and she created, not the Middle East they wanted to create. Some day, reality will intrude at the Bush White House. But not tonight, dear.

     Ironically, we can thank the Arabs themselves for the evolution of their new world. Aljazeera originated in Qatar, not Washington or Boston. Al-Arabiya began playing catch-up. Lebanese satellite channels morphed from entertainment to news and information. Aljazeera reflects an authentic, if imperfect, Arab voice, which is why the cabal in Washington despises Aljazeera and has repeatedly bombed its facilities to intimidate its staff.

Those flickering images that I first saw in the cold morning of a border crossing in eastern Jordan have become the most powerful voice for Arab freedom and democracy.

     Bur, what, exactly would a "free and democratic" Arab world be like? The mullahs think they know. But I think they are wrong. It would reflect passion for liberating the Palestinians, and cadging the Israeli tiger within recognized borders. Israel would have to make peace, and avoid violence against its neighbors. There would be no Lebanese invasions, because Arabs could (and ultimately will) threaten to use nuclear weapons just as easily as the Israelis do today. Cold War MAD (mutually assured destruction) would finally arrive in the Middle East.

     But, surprisingly, we can indeed look forward to a more peaceful world. It may all look very remote as bombs fall on Beirut, and babies are incinerated In Gaza. But peace is coming. It will be a world in which all nations of the region are equally respected, and the fat Israeli military butterballs do not strut about yapping about their "superpower" status.

     Change in the Arab world will indeed be delivered by younger generations, by gradually evolving cultural freedom. Democracy will evolve through local rejection of repression, not "elections" at the barrel of an American soldier. Israel will be more influential in the Middle East in the future than it is today. And so will the United States, when we reopen our doors, reopen our universities and stop treating every Arab visitor as a potential terrorist.

     Many, many decades ago, an Arab and I spoke en route from Libya to Egypt. He told me I was a "different kind of American" because of my respect for the Arab people, my fairness and evenhandedness, and my aspiration for an American policy that treated everyone equally. I was a much younger man then. I am a lot older now. But my views have not changed.

     Condo, the "new Middle East" you have created is going to be George Bush's "little terror." You ain't gonna like it. But whether you like it or not, and whether Tom Friedman likes it or not, there is a new Middle East exploding before our eyes. Deal with it. I did, more than 35 years ago. And it has made all the difference. (Thanks mom and dad.)