I TOLD YOU SO:

PEACE IS ONE STEP CLOSER IN THE MIDDLE EAST

     (SAN DIEGO, CA)(December 6, 2006) I am not an admirer of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. But as I have often stressed, I am completely impartial on questions of Middle East politics. I favor the Palestinian position because it is legally correct, not because I am a partisan. I criticize Israelis because in my opinion Israel has repeatedly vitiated opportunities for peace, opportunities that in historical context will be seen as lost opportunities.

During the recent Israeli war with Hizballah I predicted that the Israeli defeat would ultimately bring peace closer, not farther away. Most people scoffed at my views, of course, which is why I write a column called "Contrarian Commentary" and not one for the Washington Post.

Olmert said during the war he would "never" negotiate for prisoners. Which is what he has been doing since hostilities ended. Olmert's "never" has proven about as practical a position as the "Three Nos" of the Arab world after 1967.

And peace, I suggest, will always approach in small steps, not grand ones, sometimes steps so small they are virtually unrecognizable except to the trained eye.

In my opinion Olmert's response to the decision of Israeli Education Minister Yuli Tamir to show the 1967 Green Line in future Israeli textbooks, if implemented, will prove to be one of the first tangible recognitions that war is not a solution to the Palestinian conflict.

Olmert is a politician. He could have "played to his base" and condemned Tamir for even suggesting depiction of the Green Line. Olmert candidly rejects the Green Line as a division between Israel and Palestine. For now.

And, as some politicians correctly pointed out, Israeli law purports to erase the Green Line. But the Green Line endures, and survives and will probably ultimately prevail.

Admitting to the existence of the Green Line is a profound concession that compromises will have to be made to secure peace. "Greater Israel" will join the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere in the dustbin of history. Where do you start? With the Green Line of course.

Tamir made the obvious statement that Israel could not criticize Arabs for demonizing Israel geographically in their textbooks if Israelis committed the same violations in their own schools. As a mathematician would say, Q. E. D. Put that in your textbook.

Perhaps Obamatics is coming to the Middle East, finally.

Barack Obama has been praised as a senator who seeks to proffer hope, and not demonization, as an approach to resolving our common problems. I am not an admirer of Obama, either. He is a bunkum artist. But if Obamatics is the media's "next big thing," why not export Obamatics to the Middle East and tell people the sooner they stop demonizing each other the sooner they will learn to live in peace. It happens to be true.

Israelis and Palestinians/Arabs are the perfect Alfonse & Gaston routine in world politics. Each points to the other and says "Not me, it's him first." "After you," says Olmert. "After you," say Arab leaders. And everyone remains in place. Nevertheless the desire for peace among ordinary folk is palpable. Only the politicians are lacking in the skill and character to tell the obvious truth to their respective bases so that a settlement could become possible. (I propounded the Andy Martin Peace Plan in July, 2000. It is still the most sensible and practical approach to peace.)

And so, while at the moment the actions of a minor Israeli official to publish the Green Line in future textbooks may seem like a discrete and irrelevant act, seen in historical context the Israeli defeat in Lebanon is bearing fruit. Sooner, rather than later, Israeli officials will recognize and act upon the reality that peace is the only option. Neither American nor Israeli public opinion will maintain in perpetuity the military resources necessary to prolong the horrible occupation of the Palestinian people.

Indeed, peace is not only an "option," it is the only approach. There is no alternative. Israel cannot afford any more "victories" of the 2006 Lebanon variety.

And so first the textbooks will change, then the people will follow. That's the way politicians operate. And Mr. Olmert is a politician. Peace is one step closer. I told you so.

One final note: Even in the darkest moments of the conflict, some groups have sought to promote peace, not hate. Givat Haviva is such an organization. [GivatHaviva.org] GH seeks to open dialogues and contacts between young Israelis and young Palestinians. GH seeks to influence the textbooks of the mind, soul and spirit. I have been a contributor to GH.